Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, is one of America’s foremost Cuba experts.
In 2003, he outlined 21 future scenarios, along with the probability of them taking place within the next two or three years. Among those scenarios:
- Fidel dies and his brother Raúl takes over in an orderly fashion - 80%.
- Fidel and Raúl both die, and the Cuban military takes over - 60%.
- Refugees flood U.S. base at Guantánamo, sparking violence - 30% to 40%.
- Cuba undergoes peaceful transition to democracy - less than 20%.
- Violent demonstrations in Cuba bring down Castro regime - less than 20%.
- Cuba's military stages a coup d'etat - 10%.
- The United States sends the Marines into Cuba - less than 5%.
- Fidel is assassinated - less than 5%.
Is it possible to know how he got these forecasts?Another had a similar reaction, telling me in a message:
How did Jaime Suchlicki arrive at the percentages? Why an 80% chance instead of, say, 77%?I confess I don't know how Suchlicki came up with those numbers.
Or, what is the name of the crystal ball store where he bought his predictive powers?
Or, "98% of all statistics are made up. ~Author Unknown"