His 44-page research paper is entitled, "United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba." (Download PDF)
U.S. policy towards Cuba has long lost its creative initiative and effectiveness. As much a tribute to the political cunning of Fidel Castro as to other domestic forces, American efforts at regime removal and support to the Cuban people have all ended counterproductively. With each action, the Revolutionary government has emerged even more politically powerful and entrenched. However, recent changes on the island have for the first time opened up unique opportunities and windows to advance U.S. national security objectives towards Cuba.
While some of these opportunities are fleeting, others are as inevitable as the “biological solutions” the island’s geriatric leadership. As a result of the later, the government will almost certainly have at least one more succession or transition in the coming decade. It is the purpose of this paper to provide a U.S.-Cuba background, proposed succession and transition scenarios, address some of those nascent prospects, discuss the resultant security policy implications, and finally make recommendations.